Analysis: Andy Burnham’s route back to the Commons is clearer - but one big hurdle remains

The decision by Josh Simons, Labour MP for Makerfield, to stand down has opened up a path for Andy Burnham to run as a parliamentary candidate in the constituency. This development is being hailed by some within the party as a “unity” move, designed to unite Labour’s warring factions behind a single candidate.

However, it also raises important questions about the implications of this decision on the broader Labour Party and its chances of winning back power. Labour’s leadership struggles have far-reaching consequences for British politics, with nearly a third of the party calling for Sir Keir Starmer’s resignation and his grip on power weakening by the day.

Burnham’s supporters argue that his candidacy offers Labour its best chance of regaining trust with voters who have drifted towards Reform UK. However, this is not just about Burnham’s personal appeal; it is also a reflection of the party’s broader woes. As one minister noted, “If he wins [the by-election] we all are,” highlighting the high stakes involved in this contest.

The fact that Simons, who is not a typical ally of Burnham, has stood down to make way for him suggests that there may be more to this decision than meets the eye. It is possible that Labour’s leadership is seeking to use this by-election as an opportunity to settle their internal disputes and focus on a unified message for the general election.

The maths are daunting, with Reform UK having won all 11 wards in Makerfield at last week’s elections. Nigel Farage has pledged that his party “will throw absolutely everything at it,” which is likely to be music to the ears of many Labour strategists. The short-term consequence of this decision is likely to be paralysis in government, as Sir Keir Starmer continues to insist that he will not resign and has vowed to fight any leadership contest.

Focus will quickly turn to the by-election race in Makerfield, where Burnham’s chances of success are far from guaranteed. A former party strategist suggested that the only viable campaign strategy for Burnham would be to stand as a vehicle to remove Sir Keir from Downing Street, which raises more questions than it answers.

If Burnham fails to win, his long-held ambitions will be over, and Labour’s leadership struggles will continue to dominate the headlines. On the other hand, if he succeeds in winning Makerfield, he will have demonstrated that he can turn the electoral tide with at least some voters who have drifted to Reform coming back, sending shockwaves through the party.

The prize is almost certainly the Labour leadership and Number 10. This by-election offers Labour a chance to put its internal disputes behind it and focus on winning back power. However, it also raises important questions about the party’s ability to adapt to changing voter preferences and its willingness to challenge its own assumptions about what works in British politics.

As one minister noted, “We are not about one person or ego,” highlighting the challenges facing Labour as it seeks to rebuild trust with voters. If Burnham succeeds in winning Makerfield, he will have taken a major step towards achieving his long-held ambition of becoming Prime Minister. But if he fails, the consequences for Labour’s leadership and its prospects in 2024 will be severe.

The stakes are high, but one thing is clear: this by-election offers Labour a chance to reboot and refocus on what really matters - winning back power and serving the British people.